Henry Mintzberg, probably the most important thinker on Business Administration at the present time, notes in his book "The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning" three fundamental fallacies of strategic thinking. We must be careful because they are tempting fallacies:
Fallacy number one: the thought must be disconnected from the action. Strategists and planners should be away from the production process. This gives them a better quality of assessment and plan to create. Away from the daily pressures of the business they can have great ideas.
Why it is a fallacy? Because the thought arises from the action. Centuries of platonic thought led us to believe that ideas rule the actions when in fact what happens is the opposite: actions generate ideas. The closer is the strategist of the day to day business, the product, market and customer, his ideas will be more consistent. This fallacy is particularly tempting in colonized countries, like Brazil, where the idea of thinking as a superior activity to the action is implicit in the culture.
Fallacy number two: the data are fully reliable. It is therefore necessary or natural continuation of the first fallacy. If I'm away from reality, how to have ideas about it? Simple, I receive data and treat them. Mintzberg says, quote: "Having to investigate the confusing world of the details would force senior managers to leave their pedestals, and even worse, force planners to leave the room support staff to line pressures." So here appears the management information systems or strategic information systems.
Why it is a fallacy? Because the numbers and data are a visible face of reality, not the whole, far from the whole. The integration of data to turn information into intelligence demands the amalgamation of many factors - numerical and concrete ones - made in the last frontier only by the human been, because requires creativity and intuition.
Fallacy number three: the future is predictable. I am far from the production process, and I presumably have all relevant data. Of course I will be able, with data and peace of mind, to do a competent reading of the scenario and predict the most possible future events.
Why it is a fallacy? Because the universe is no more complicated than we imagine. It is more complicated than we can imagine. The variables and relationships are complex and too extensive to fit into any relational matrix. Competitors, markets, employees, customers, media. The amount of variables forces us, permament, to reread this and adapt our actions.
Distance, formalize and anticipate are words that should be used with great care when we manage, if don't we will be only voices in the wind.
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